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The last time the US 30 year bond yield was this high, the stock market peaked 3 months later.
The US 30-year yield just hit 5.18%, the highest level since July 2007. The US has $39 trillion in debt.
Every 1% rise in yields adds roughly $390 billion in annual interest payments to that debt. The US is now paying close to $1.2 trillion per year just in interest, more than it spends on defense.
The reason yields are rising is CPI is at 3.8%, PPI at 6%, and the Iran war is keeping oil above $100.
A bond yielding 5% sounds attractive until you realize inflation is eating 3.8% of that return every year.
So investors are selling bonds and demanding even higher yields to stay in.
The more they sell, the higher yields go, the more it costs the government to borrow, the worse the deficit gets.
62% of global fund managers surveyed by Bank of America now expect the 30-year yield to hit 6%, the highest level since 1999. Barclays and Citigroup have already warned clients that yields may breach 5.5%.
And the head of BlackRock's research unit is already recommending investors reduce exposure to government bonds entirely.
When the 30-year yield hit 5% in 2007, most people ignored it.
3 months later, US stock market peaked while Lehman Brothers collapsed the next year which brought the global financial system down.
#USTreasuryHits19YrHigh #TradeAIStocksOnOKX #SamsungStrikeBegins
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