Lei06
Lei06
Crypto Market Participants & Web3 Content Creators. Study on-chain data, track hot narratives, and make transactions that you can understand. I believe that good content requires patience just like good positions.
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Peach drink contains less than one-fifth of a drop of peach per water? Tricks can't buy long-term repurchase. A 'Master Kong Daily C Peach' drink, with pink packaging printed with plump and tempting peaches, prominently marked below as "specially selected Fenghua peaches." But in fact, in this 500ml bottle, the content of concentrated peach juice is only about 0.0 grams!
[AllianceDAO Co-founder: ZEC's conservative target is to reach 3%-5% of BTC's market cap]
On May 21, Alliance DAO co-founder Wang Qiao stated that ZEC's conservative target is to reach 3%-5% of BTC's market cap, as BTC holders will allocate part of their assets to ZEC as a hedging tool; a more aggressive target is to reach 15%-20% of BTC, which corresponds to the silver-to-gold exchange rate level.
Wang Qiao also believes that if a catastrophic event occurs to BTC, such as massive sell-offs by Saylor or quantum attacks, ZEC has the opportunity to surpass BTC. ZEC has risen over 25% in the past month, with its market cap surpassing $10 billion. At the time of writing, ZEC's market cap is reported at $10.9 billion, while Bitcoin's market cap is about $1.54 trillion.
If ZEC can realize this prediction, there is still 3-6 times upside potential. $ZEC $BTC
[AllianceDAO Co-founder: ZEC Could Become a BTC Hedge Asset, Aggressive Expectations May Reach 20% of BTC Market Cap]
AllianceDAO co-founder Wang Qiao posted on platform X that Zcash is expected to become a hedge asset for some Bitcoin holders. A more conservative target is for ZEC's market cap to reach about 3% to 5% of Bitcoin's, meaning BTC holders would rebalance part of their positions into ZEC for risk hedging.
More aggressive expectations suggest that ZEC's market cap could account for 15% to 20% of BTC's, similar to silver's market positioning relative to gold. Additionally, Wang Qiao's analysis proposes an extreme "flippening" scenario, where if Bitcoin faces a major systemic risk event—such as risks related to Michael Saylor or black swan factors like quantum computing threats—ZEC could significantly increase its market share. However, this scenario is described as a low-probability event. $ZEC $ZEC
[Analysis: BTC Struggles to Sustain Above $80,000 in the Short Term, Weak Spot Demand Suppresses Breakout Expectations]
Bitcoin fell below $78,000 on Thursday, with growing market concerns over the momentum of a subsequent rebound. Data shows that Bitcoin spot ETFs have seen net outflows for four consecutive trading days, while about $584 million in long liquidations earlier this week continue to weigh on market risk appetite. Analysts believe that until on-chain spot demand recovers, BTC will find it difficult to effectively hold above $80,000 in the short term.
The Ethereum market is under even more pressure. ETH spot ETFs recorded a net outflow of $28.1 million on the day, marking eight consecutive trading days of capital outflows. Since May 7, ETH ETFs have seen cumulative outflows of approximately $504 million over nine trading days, the most severe sustained capital withdrawal since February this year.
In the derivatives market, total crypto futures liquidations reached about $657 million on Monday, with long liquidations accounting for $584 million, the largest single-day long liquidation event since early February this year. Currently, Bitcoin’s open interest has declined about 14% from the May 6 peak, but the overall leverage structure has yet to fully reset.
On-chain data is also bearish. Glassnode reports that when Bitcoin previously rebounded to $82,000, it briefly reclaimed the key "realized market value" level of $78,300, but has since fallen below it again. Historical cycles indicate that BTC typically needs to consolidate in this area for several weeks to months to confirm a bull-bear structural shift.
Additionally, Glassnode data shows Bitcoin’s spot CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta) has been negative for nine consecutive trading days, marking the longest net selling period since 2026; meanwhile, BTC’s hourly spot trading volume has dropped about 40% compared to the same period in 2025. Analysts note that U.S. investors have been continuously distributing chips since Q4 2025, while Asian capital has shifted to accumulation.
The options market also signals caution. BTC near-term options 25-delta skew has risen from 2.7% to 6.2%, indicating a clear increase in demand for downside protection. Approximately $2.5 billion in short gamma positions are concentrated at the $75,000 strike price; if BTC falls back to this area, market makers’ hedging activities could further amplify volatility.
Regarding altcoins, the market overall continues to follow BTC’s fluctuations, with Bitcoin’s market dominance holding around 60%. However, Hyperliquid and Zcash bucked the trend with double-digit gains, indicating selective rotation of funds. $BTC $ETH
[Analysis: Crypto Payments to Become the Fastest Growing Online Payment Method, Digital Wallets Now Account for Over Half of Global Online Transaction Volume]
Global Payments, a global payment technology and software company, released the "Global Payments Report 2026," which points out that digital wallets now account for more than half of global online transaction volume and one-third of offline transactions. Digital wallets can flexibly integrate various payment methods including cryptocurrencies, but only 10% of merchants worldwide directly accept cryptocurrency payments.
In 2025, cryptocurrencies will account for only 0.19% of global e-commerce transaction volume, approximately $15 billion. The report predicts that direct cryptocurrency payments will become the fastest growing online payment method, with a compound annual growth rate of 16% from 2025 to 2030. This means that by 2030, e-commerce transactions using direct cryptocurrency payments could account for 0.28% of global e-commerce transaction volume, nearly $31 billion.
[Approximately $6.25 Billion in Bitcoin Options Expire on May 29]
According to CoinDesk on May 21, Deribit will see about $6.25 billion worth of Bitcoin options expire on May 29, involving a total of 80,535 contracts. The current Bitcoin price is around $77,250, with the "max pain price" at $75,000, approximately 3% below the current price, corresponding to the largest short benefit zone; this price level is also the concentration point for put options, with a notional amount of about $394 million.
On the call side, the $80,000 strike price holds the largest position, with a notional amount of about $532 million. The overall put/call ratio is 0.86, indicating a mildly bullish market sentiment. Meanwhile, the 29MAY26 $82,000 call option is the most actively traded contract of the day, with about 1,600 contracts traded (approximately $126 million), showing some traders are betting on Bitcoin breaking above $82,000. $BTC
【Exodus has resumed increasing holdings of BTC, ETH, and SOL, with nearly $350 million in transaction volume in April】
Crypto wallet service provider Exodus Movement released its April operational data report. After selling over a thousand BTC reserves in Q1 to fund the acquisition of a payment business, the company resumed purchases of BTC, ETH, and SOL in April, with holdings increasing across the board. It currently holds 629 BTC, 1872 ETH, and 19,234 SOL.
Additionally, Exodus processed $347 million in transactions in April, with monthly active users remaining steady at 1.5 million, roughly the same as in March. $BTC $ETH $SOL
【$6.25 Billion Bitcoin Options Expiring, Traders Concentrate Bets on $82,000 Call Options】
Approximately $6.25 billion worth of Bitcoin options contracts are set to expire on May 29, drawing market attention. Among them, the $75,000 strike price holds the largest put position with a notional value of about $394 million, while the $80,000 strike price has the largest call position valued at approximately $532 million.
The current Max Pain price is at $75,000, about 3% lower than Bitcoin's current price of $77,250. Data shows that this expiration involves a total of 80,535 contracts, including 43,184 call options and 37,351 put options, with a Put/Call Ratio of 0.86, reflecting an overall mildly bullish market sentiment.
$BTC
[A certain whale increased the size of the HYPE short position to $20 million and sold over 60,000 HYPE again]
On May 21, according to Onchain Lens monitoring, as HYPE continues to rise, whale 0x842 increased its 5x short position to 353,832 HYPE, valued at $20 million, with an unrealized loss exceeding $1.88 million. This whale also sold 61,044 HYPE, totaling 125,444 HYPE sold, earning $6.5 million at an average price of $52. $HYPE