Phyrex.Ni

It's been over 75 days, right? I believe even Trump didn't expect the US-Iran geopolitical conflict to last this long. He’s probably regretting it deeply now, but since it has happened, it needs to be resolved as soon as possible. Although Vance said today that the negotiations with Iran have achieved some results, the market no longer believes the 'wolf is coming' story. The current market is just watching the oil price; if oil prices don’t come down, it means inflation cannot be eased. From the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, the US Navy has intensified the blockade of Iranian ports and today expelled some ships attempting to approach Iran. This is a significant blow to Iran’s shadow fleet. So, when neither side wants to escalate attacks, they are choking each other, and it’s a matter of who runs out of breath first. But Hormuz is not just about oil; it also involves food and fertilizer. Therefore, the longer this lasts, the more disadvantageous it is for Iran. Considering their own interests, Europe and Asia may both urge Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz. Everyone understands the reasoning, but it’s really unclear how long Iran can hold out. The last IEA report said until the end of May, and there are still 10 days left. Hopefully, it can be resolved. Back to Bitcoin data, with the US stock market falling, $BTC is indeed oscillating downward, but it’s clear that the decline in Bitcoin is slowing down. This is mainly because short-term turnover investors are decreasing, and more investors prefer to hold long-term. Most investors also know that the current decline is caused by the US-Iran standoff, and once the war ends, the probability of a rebound will be very high. So, there is no sign of massive investor sell-off, and daily turnover is not intense. Investors are still maintaining a rational attitude for now. #Bitget VIP is here! Crypto, US stocks, CFDs, global opportunities all in one place

On Monday, the data for $ETH spot ETFs continued to be poor, which was expected since investors chasing rallies and selling during downturns are gradually exiting. However, it is quite similar to Friday's expectations; except for a significant reduction in investors from BlackRock, other institutional investors have not reduced their holdings much. It's not that other institutional investors have higher awareness, but rather that short-term investors have mostly left. Especially in the past two weeks, Fidelity's investors have been exiting about 5% of their holdings daily, and even now, daily sell-offs are around 1% of the holdings. Other institutions are even less active. For the market to warm up again, we still need to see the complete resolution of the conflict between the US and Iran. #Bitget comes as VIP! Crypto, US stocks, CFDs, a one-stop global opportunity layout

Just like I said yesterday, the back-and-forth between the US and Iran has been ongoing, and today was another day of turmoil. First, there was news that the US was preparing to take action against Iran, causing WTI prices to surge above $105. Then it was reported that Iran submitted a revised ceasefire agreement, and oil prices fell back below $100. Next, the US opposed this agreement, and Iran established a new department that publicly announced it would manage the Strait of Hormuz. At this point, I really have no patience left for this situation. I don’t understand how the US and Iran can endure this constant tug-of-war. The US blockade of Iranian ports has severely impacted Iran’s economy, while Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz affects inflation in the US and even globally. Dragging this out benefits neither side, nor the world. I remember the IEA initially analyzed that the Strait of Hormuz issue would be resolved by the end of May at the latest. There are about 10 days left, and if this turmoil continues, it’s hard to say what will happen. If WTI oil prices remain above $100, inflation in May will definitely continue to rise, and the June interest rate meeting will be impossible to see a rate cut, no matter who shows up. Back to Bitcoin data, as mentioned before, $BTC price fluctuations are still determined by the US stock market, especially tech stocks. The US stock market’s trend is closely linked to the US economy, macro factors, and politics. Data shows that short-term speculators in Bitcoin are indeed decreasing, while long-term investors are gradually increasing. #Bitget means VIP! Crypto, US stocks, CFDs, global opportunities all in one place

On Friday, the poor data for $BTC dragged down $ETH data as well, which wasn't much better; overall, both were about the same. Most short-term investors from other institutions have probably already exited. Although Fidelity is also seeing outflows, the volume has significantly decreased. Other institutions have even fewer outflows. Currently, the largest outflow is from BlackRock, which is understandable since they bought the most during the inflow period, so naturally, they are selling the most now. In the data from week 94, U.S. investors collectively withdrew 112,492 ETH, a significant contrast to the net inflow of 42,744 ETH in week 93. Traditional investors' interest in ETH has once again diminished considerably. #Bitget is here to make you VIP! Crypto, U.S. stocks, CFDs—global opportunities all in one place

Iran's Fars News reports that Iran has launched a Hormuz Safe shipping insurance platform for the Strait of Hormuz, claiming it can settle payments using Bitcoin The platform named Hormuz Safe / هرمز سیف has started providing insurance for maritime cargo passing through the Strait of Hormuz. A document obtained by a Fars reporter shows that since the beginning of Ordibehesht month in the Iranian calendar, roughly late April 2026, the Iranian Ministry of Economy has been advancing a plan to "manage the Strait of Hormuz" through an insurance mechanism. This plan can issue various marine insurance policies and financial liability certificates, with potential revenue exceeding 10 billion USD. Fars also claims that platform rules indicate the related insurance will be settled using $BTC, with cargo confirmed on-chain and a signed receipt provided to the cargo owner. If implemented, this plan could bring Iran over 10 billion USD in revenue.

I don't know how much time is left for Trump and Iran, but I do know that if things continue like this, inflation in the US will definitely keep rising. If this scenario plays out, the risk markets in the second half of 2026 may not be smooth sailing, especially after Trump's threats. Iran has stated it is prepared for any form of escalation, whether in the Strait of Hormuz or on its own territory.