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$BTC Bold Prediction: US Stock Market Black Swan (3) — Just now Trump, Musk, and Jensen Huang called the last batch of wealthy people to get on board Latest news: Mediators draft a US-Iran memorandum of intent, aiming to start 30 days of negotiations + SpaceX asteroid mining and Mars colonization + Nvidia's earnings exceed expectations The issue here is: these messages were exchanged while they were drinking on Air Force One during their visit to China, but today they specifically chose Nvidia's earnings release period to stack positive news, with a very clear purpose. Today's focus is on Elon Musk: SpaceX IPO itself is unlikely to single-handedly drain the US stock market causing a crash, but it could very well become a signal of peak sentiment in the US stock market bubble. Currently, market rumors are very exaggerated: SpaceX may list on Nasdaq in mid-June, targeting about $75 billion in financing, with a valuation around $1.75 trillion. If it happens, it will be one of the largest IPOs in history. Meanwhile, BlackRock may consider investing $5 billion to $10 billion. The real danger is not the IPO financing amount itself, but the three signals behind it. 1. Extreme valuation signal. If a company that has not fully disclosed financial details is valued at $1.75 trillion and is still wildly chased by the market, it indicates that the capital market has entered a highly euphoric stage. 2. Capital reallocation signal. Institutions may sell some tech stocks, AI stocks, and growth stocks to make room for participating in the SpaceX IPO. 3. Peak sentiment signal. Many super IPOs in history are often not the direct cause of crashes but frequently appear at points of extreme market sentiment. For example, Alibaba's IPO in 2014 raised about $25 billion, setting a global record at the time. The market was very hot at Alibaba's listing, with a big first-day surge, but the US stock market soon experienced a phase of adjustment. Facebook's IPO in 2012 raised about $16 billion and traded below its IPO price for a long time after listing. Rivian's IPO in 2021 raised about $11.9 billion, during a peak bubble phase for new energy vehicles, growth stocks, and unprofitable tech stocks, followed by deep corrections in the Nasdaq and growth stocks. So the SpaceX IPO itself is not the explosive device, but it could be the Mars in the high market. In the next two months, if SpaceX lists amid the US stock market Buffett indicator around 230%, extreme tech stock valuations, and unresolved war and energy risks, it is very likely to become a hallmark event of market frenzy! #美债利率近19年新高：风险资产全线承压 $BTC $ETH

$ZEC Just in: 🇺🇸 Kevin Walsh will be sworn in as the new Federal Reserve Chair on Friday, officially succeeding Jerome Powell. The market has already gone out of control. Crypto traders are all screaming "the money printer is back," financial media suddenly turned into Walsh experts, and Wall Street is already pricing in a new era before the new chair even takes the seat. But here’s a reality no one wants to admit: Changing the Fed Chair doesn’t eliminate inflation. It doesn’t solve America’s debt problem. And it can’t fix a financial system addicted to cheap money. Powell spent years aggressively raising rates to fight inflation while trying to prevent a market crash. Now Walsh takes over, and investors immediately expect looser policies, faster rate cuts, and new liquidity. Maybe he’ll pivot quickly. Maybe he’ll stay cautious. Maybe the market will spike within hours and then immediately fall back. Either way, the building is the same. The system is the same. Just a different suit. #在OKX交易美股：AI双雄押哪边？ $BTC $ETH

$HYPE could be one of the coins that can defy the odds in the next bull market. I've already started building a position. It might not be the absolute bottom right now, but in the long term, it is a bottom. Currently, the price of $HYPE is actually not high because we are still in a bear market. There are two buyback channels: one is 99% of protocol revenue is used for buybacks, and the other is 10% of the HYPE ETF management fees are used for buybacks. The circulating supply is deflationary. In the next bull market, a several-fold increase is very likely. #美债利率近19年新高：风险资产全线承压 $BTC $ETH

$LAB When you look at a chart, the first thing you need to do is set aside your expectations of the market. Just look at it as it is. Assume you are looking at Bitcoin. Once you open that chart, whether you realize it or not, you already have a bias. If you hold a large amount of spot $BTC or have a long position, you will look for more reasons to be bullish on Bitcoin. If you don’t hold spot, or you are shorting, or you just hold stablecoins waiting for a cheaper entry, whatever the reason, you will look for more reasons to be bearish. That’s human nature. We all do this. But sometimes, when you try to look at the chart objectively, you have to pretend you don’t know which coin the chart is for. Forget whether you own it. Just ask yourself: "What does this chart look like? Is it in an uptrend or a downtrend?" Looking at things this way, you will avoid many problems: - Unnecessary losses - Stop picking signals that align with your position - FOMO entries: when you have no emotional attachment, you stop chasing - Bias that makes you stick to trades after structure breaks - Going against the trend. No amount of hope can change what the chart is actually doing - Overtrading: when you stay neutral on outcomes, you only act when there is a real reason - Entering or exiting trades at the right time The chart doesn’t care about your position, your entry price, or your confidence in the project. It just does what it’s supposed to do. Your only job is to read it clearly. #美债利率近19年新高：风险资产全线承压 $BTC $ETH

$LAB Today's Market Analysis: The US stock market has started to trap investors, and BTC has reached the critical zone where the fifth wave of decline begins, accelerating the pace! Last night, although the US stock indices showed a decent rebound intraday, the rapid surge was quickly crushed back down, effectively trapping most of the rebound-chasing chips at the top. 1. Vance's Statement Brent crude oil has hovered near $110 without a clear pullback. The core reason remains the unresolved Middle East situation. Vance stated that progress has been made in US-Iran negotiations, and both sides do not want to resume military actions, but the market remains skeptical. 2. Trump's Statement Meanwhile, Trump signaled that if no agreement is reached, the US might launch another attack on Iran this weekend or early next week. The risk of war is heating up again, keeping oil prices high, and market focus naturally returns to inflation. More importantly, Trump has softened his stance on rate cuts this time. He acknowledged that the oil price shock caused by geopolitical conflicts complicates inflation and rate cut prospects. Even though the new Fed Chair Wash leans toward easing, reality must contend with oil prices and inflation pressures. In other words, before the war ends, the market is unlikely to reprice a clear rate cut path. The previous market logic betting on rate cuts within the year is being shattered by high oil prices and inflation risks. 3. Signs of deleveraging in high-beta assets have appeared within the US stock market It is not yet a panic indiscriminate sell-off; pressure mainly concentrates on the previously largest gainers and most crowded trades in tech stocks and the semiconductor supply chain. QQQ has fallen below the 10-day moving average, breaking the bulls' unilateral upward momentum. 4. Short-term market outlook: Two key variables this week: First, Nvidia's earnings report after the market closes tonight; second, whether the Middle East situation escalates again over the weekend. These two events will directly determine the short-term fate of the US stock market and the crypto space: whether to limp along or accelerate the decline. #美债利率近19年新高：风险资产全线承压 $BTC $ETH

$POL Polymarket is becoming one of the most interesting platforms in Web3. While most people only focus on price charts, Polymarket is building an ecosystem where information itself becomes the trade. That's why growth is exploding: • Hundreds of thousands of active traders monthly • Millions of users visiting the platform each month • Huge projected trading volume in the future • Narratives often start here and then spread throughout the crypto space The real advantage is simple: If you can understand trends early, you can position yourself before the market reacts. Politics. Artificial Intelligence. Sports. Economics. Global events. Everything turns into an opportunity. Now the market is starting to value $POLY. When you see how much attention tokens like $PENGU and $DOOD are attracting, it's easy to see people are positioning early here too. It feels like prediction markets are entering their breakout phase. I'm watching all this closely until the next wave arrives. #美债利率近19年新高：风险资产全线承压 $BTC $ETH

$ZEC In the crypto world, more important than technical skills is the ability to "admit defeat." Many only understand this after liquidation. It's not that the technique is bad, but that they refuse to admit it. They think they can hold on and recover after losses, holding on once, then again next time, until one time they just can't recover, and the account is wiped out. It's not losing to the market, but losing to the refusal to admit defeat. #CryptoSurvivalRules Admitting defeat is not resigning to fate, but admitting mistakes. When wrong, admit it; once admitted, correct it; once corrected, don't repeat it. Those who don't admit will repeatedly fall into the same pit, while those who admit will fill the pit after one fall. I've seen people with great technical skills and accurate directional judgment, but their accounts never grow because they always hold losing positions, refusing to exit, thinking they can recover. Their technique isn't wrong; the mistake is the refusal to admit. The ability to admit defeat is trained. Before entering each trade, write down your stop loss. Writing it down is admitting in advance, so you won't hesitate when facing losses. Not admitting causes you to miss the best exit point, and missing once leads to the same script next time. There's also the sunk cost fallacy. The longer you spend on a trade, the harder it is to leave. This mindset in trading is called holding losing positions. Waiting longer doesn't make you right, and the market won't turn back just because you held on for a long time. If you exit, you lose a little. If you don't, you might lose a lot. Those who admit defeat choose the former; those who don't choose the latter. Admitting defeat is not to lose, but to win. Admitting small losses gives you the chance to make big profits. Refusing small losses leads to big losses. The moment you admit defeat is painful, but the pain is temporary; losing everything is permanent. Which do you choose? #美债利率近19年新高：风险资产全线承压 $BTC $ETH

$ZEC over $23 million in pure profit: The $ZEC whale cartel is crushing the shorts! 🤯 ZECUSDT Perpetual 582.62 +3.75% Check out the absolute madness unfolding on ZECUSDT right now. 273 whales are fighting over more than $149.04 million, but this is not a fair fight. The long-short ratio has exploded to a shocking 435.38%! On the winning side, 139 alpha whales control over $121.21 million in long positions. With an average entry price of $470.85, they dominate the market with an astonishing 92.08% win rate, hoarding over $23.25 million in unrealized profits. They are printing money while retail panics. Meanwhile, 134 desperate shorts (holding only $27.83 million) are being utterly slaughtered. Their average entry price is $553.59, trapping them with a miserable 27.61% win rate and losses exceeding $1.38 million. They have effectively become rocket fuel for the longs. Seeing this buy wall of over $121.21 million and the aggressive 435% bullish ratio, I’m holding my long positions tight. Smart money is making millions, and I’m riding the same wave. #美债利率近19年新高：风险资产全线承压 $BTC $ETH

$DOGE Family, who understands this? Musk’s move has completely stunned me! SpaceX isn’t even public yet, and suddenly they’re planning to acquire Cursor? This script is too surreal. Even more outrageous is the $10 billion breakup fee—it’s like money is just paper flowers to them. I really can’t comprehend the world of the wealthy. Is this a technological dimensionality reduction strike, or just capital going wild? Take a look at this drama and tell me, do you think this deal will go through? Submit your thoughts in the comments! #美债利率近19年新高：风险资产全线承压 $BTC $ETH

It's been three years, and I've grown from 10,000 U to 670,000 U. I didn't rely on insider info or jump on a bull frenzy; I just used a "simple method"—treating trading like leveling up in a game, grinding step by step. $RONIN Over these 1095 days, I've summarized 6 key insights. Understanding one can save you tens of thousands; mastering three can put you ahead of most retail traders. First: Sharp rises and slow falls mean the big players are quietly accumulating $BinanceLife They pump it up quickly, then let it fall slowly—don't rush to cut losses. This isn't a crash; it's a shakeout to weed out the weak holders. The real top usually comes with a sudden surge in volume, then a "crash" waterfall drop, trapping everyone rushing in to catch the falling knife. $LAB Second: Fast drops and slow rises mean the big players are quietly unloading After a flash crash, a slow rebound looks like a bargain, but it's actually the last strike. Don't think "it’s already dropped so much, it can't go lower"—this mindset is the easiest way to suffer a big loss. Third: High volume at the top doesn't always mean the end; low volume is the real warning If volume is still high at the top, it means funds are still playing, and there might be another push. But if it suddenly goes quiet with low volume and sideways movement, that's the signal for a crash—no one wants to buy, and a drop follows. Fourth: Don't rush in on volume spikes at the bottom; sustained volume is reliable A single volume spike might be bait. You need a period of consolidation to clean out weak hands, then several days of continuous volume increase—that's the real signal of building a position. Fifth: Candlesticks show results; volume reveals sentiment Price moves are just appearances; volume shows true sentiment. When volume shrinks to near zero, it means no one is playing and the market is near bottom; when volume suddenly picks up, it means real money is entering. #CryptoSurvivalRules Sixth: "Nothingness" is the real skill No obsession—empty your position when you should, without itching hands; act decisively when it's time, without hesitation. This isn't giving up; it's mastering your mindset. Opportunities in crypto are always there; what's lacking are people who can control their impulses and see the big picture. #USDebtYieldNear19YearHigh: Risk assets under pressure across the board $BTC $ETH