Time Window - Highest risk: late May – early June (Trump’s final deadline; US military fully deployed; Israel ready). Targets - Iran’s nuclear facilities, missile bases, command centers; not a full occupation of Iran. If War Breaks Out - Oil prices surge; global risk assets (including crypto) see extreme volatility. Why No War — For Now - US election pressure; allies (Saudi Arabia, Qatar) pushing for de-escalation; fear Iran will block the Strait of Hormuz — the global oil shipping chokepoint . ​ - Iran still at the negotiating table, not closing all diplomatic doors. $BTC $ETH $SOL #HYPE多空决战：最大空头爆仓删号 #美伊谈判三连转：核底线仍是死结 #高盛清仓，机构持仓分化