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The probability of a Fed rate hike before 2027 went from 1% to 45% in a single month — one of the sharpest repricing moves the market has seen in recent memory. April FOMC minutes released May 20 confirmed that a majority of Fed participants now think further hikes could be appropriate if inflation stays sticky. With CPI sitting at 3.8% year-over-year, the case for cuts is basically off the table.
Bitcoin is holding at $77.3K through all of this, which is quietly impressive. In a prior cycle, a 45% hike probability would've sent crypto down 20%. The fact that BTC is shrugging it off suggests the market now sees digital assets more as a macro hedge than a rate-sensitive risk trade — or maybe ETF inflows are just overriding the rates narrative entirely right now.
Is Bitcoin finally decoupling from rate expectations, or is the repricing not done yet?
Just sharing my thoughts. Not financial advice. DYOR.
#RateHikeRepricing #OKXOrbit
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