#CFTCDefendsPredMarkets: The Regulator That Once Tried to Kill Prediction Markets Is Now Their Most Aggressive Defender. The CFTC just filed its sixth amicus brief in six months — this time in the Sixth Circuit Court of Appeals in the Kalshi vs. Ohio case. The message from Chairman Selig hasn't changed: "The CFTC will not allow overzealous state governments to undermine the agency's longstanding authority over these markets." The legal battle map is now enormous. Five states sued — Arizona, Connecticut, Illinois, New York, Wisconsin. Amicus briefs filed in Massachusetts, Ohio, and the Third Circuit. A temporary restraining order secured in Arizona, blocking criminal charges against Kalshi the night before trial. Multiple federal courts have now ruled that CFTC jurisdiction preempts state gambling laws. The states keep filing. The CFTC keeps winning. The agency's argument is consistent and straightforward. Prediction market contracts are swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act. Congress gave the CFTC exclusive jurisdiction over swaps. State gambling laws cannot override federal law. Selig added one more point in a Wall Street Journal op-ed last month: if prediction markets get regulated away in the US, they'll move offshore where there are no rules — and foreign actors gain access to American information streams without any oversight. The policy shift from the previous CFTC is total. In 2024, the agency tried to ban political event contracts entirely. In 2026, it's suing states that try to stop prediction markets from operating. Same institution. Opposite posture. Polymarket now prices odds of CFTC maintaining exclusive jurisdiction at 71%. The courts are moving in one direction. The regulatory framework is being built in real time. #CFTCDefendsPredMarkets